by EUDO expert Szabolcs Pogonyi
According to the preliminary Parliamentary election results, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party has won the elections and may secure a two-thirds majority for another four years. With 99 percent of the votes counted, Fidesz (44,5 %) is forecasted to win 133 out of 199 seats in Parliament. The left-wing electoral alliance (26 %) is estimated to have 38, the far-right Jobbik (20,5 %) 23, and Can Politics Be Different? (5,3 %) 5 seats.
As part of a complete overhaul of the constitutional and electoral systems, non-resident Hungarian citizens could vote for the first time. The non-resident constituency is comprised of mostly the 600,000 Hungarians who have acquired citizenship through the Orbán government’s non-resident citizenship framework designed for the inclusion of ethnic Hungarians most of whom are living in the neighboring countries. Non-resident Hungarians could vote after registration for the party lists but not in single-member districts through mail vote (sent either by post or submitted at embassies).
In total, 193,793 non-resident voters have registered. Until election day, 146,299 mail votes have been received. Mail votes by non-resident voters could be submitted on election day also at embassies, but the number of these votes have not yet been published. Out of the received votes, so far 110,686 have been processed. As a result of a rather complicated submission process, only 87,972 voted were valid and as much as 20 percent have been void. Out of the 87,972 validated votes, 62,754 have been counted as of Monday, April 7. Fidesz has received the overwhelming 95,4 percent of these votes, while Jobbik has 2,32 and the left-wing alliance 1,23 percent.
These numbers suggest that the vote from the non-resident constituency may prove decisive in determining whether Fidesz can maintain its two-thirds majority in Parliament. According to the current projection, Fidesz will have 133 seats – exactly the number necessary for an absolute majority. Out of the total 199 seats, 93 are reserved for the party-list representation. In the party list vote, slightly more than 80,000 votes are required to win one seat. It is very likely that the votes from the non-resident constituency will secure one seat for Fidesz, without which it would otherwise have no absolute majority. With two-thirds of seats in Parliament, Fidesz may rewrite any laws including the Basic Law adopted in 2011.
Read an update with the final results by Kim Lane Scheppele. Read her earlier commentaries on the Hungarian franchise politics
Read more details about the submission of ex-pat voting in our report on electoral rights by András Bozóki
Read our earlier news about the constitutional entrenchment of ius sanguinis